In this week’s episode of Survivor: Nicaragua, “Not Where I Stand”, Sash is evidently the swing vote and the game is just a matter of whose team will he join. His options were Chanely (Chase, Jane and Holly) or Dudry (Dan, Jud and Benry).
According to TV Fanatic, although Sash openly shopped his vote seemingly looking for the best bidder, Sash appeared to make up his mind fairly quickly and even stayed with Chanely after Chase burned him by not selecting him to go on the reward challenge. Sash’s mind likely told him that shopping was his best bet, but his heart told him he couldn’t trust Dudry.
In the words of LeBron James, ‘what should [Sash] do?’ Perhaps it’s easy to see and know as the viewer, but Chase, Holly and Jane are not going to take Sash to the finals. Even if they should.
Even if we take out that piece of viewer information, I still think Dudry is the better choice. The second and third pros listed are huge. There are opportunities for Sash to work with any of those three to turn on the others and give him a 25% chance of winning. At the same time, there’s no one Sash simply has to eliminate from getting to the final three, like there is with Jane. This gives Sash (and Benry, Jud and Dan) more options.
But Sash chose Chanely so let’s move forward and evaluate what his game plan should be. How does he break that seemingly unbreakable three-way alliance? I think the key is Holly. Jane is in the driver’s seat and doesn’t need to turn on her alliance. Chase is, as he admitted himself, flighty and unreliable.
Holly, however, has some self awareness to the game. Even though she was excited to go on the reward and probably preferred to have Jane come, she knew it made more sense for Chase to take Sash. The point is, while Holly might not like the idea of getting rid of Jane, I think she’s savvy enough to know that it has to be done.
So what then becomes the strategy? I think the move is to vote out Jud next tribal (unless he wins, then Dan goes home) and then Sash and Holly team up with Dan when five people remain. Jane has to be the target because of Chase’s immunity idol (it’s unclear if the remaining survivors know NaOnka gave it to Chase). After four, Chase’s immunity idol is not valid so they’ve got a 75% (ok, Dan has no shot, so 66%) of getting rid of Chase and taking Holly and Dan to the finals.
That’s my plan for Sash. Are there holes in it? Absolutely. With Jane gone, Sash is the biggest threat to win the game, so perhaps it makes sense for Chase and Holly to take Dan. The only thing I am sure of is that the game will not play out the way I suggested. It’s the lone redeeming quality of this season: it has been impossible to predict.
What do you think about this episode?
You can check Survivor Nicaragua Reviews and Survivor Redemption Island Spoilers HERE.
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